The Bitcoin Model That Nailed the $60K Peak Now Foresees a $732K Future
Bitcoin Model That Predicted $60K Peak Forecasts $732K A Bitcoin price model that accurately predicted the cryptocurrency’s rise to $60,000 in 2021 has now projected a new target of $732,000 by 2024. The model, known as the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset (S2FX) model, was developed by a pseudonymous analyst named PlanB, who uses the scarcity of Bitcoin as a key factor to estimate its future value.
The S2FX model is based on the assumption that Bitcoin is a scarce asset that can be compared to other scarce assets such as gold, silver, and diamonds. The model uses two variables to measure the scarcity of an asset: stock and flow. Stock is the existing supply of the asset, and flow is the new supply created each year. The ratio of stock to flow is an indicator of how scarce an asset is, and how long it would take to produce the current stock at the current flow rate.
The S2FX model applies this concept to Bitcoin, which has a fixed supply of 21 million coins and a predictable flow that decreases every four years in an event called halving. The model divides the history of Bitcoin into four phases, each with a different stock-to-flow ratio and a different market value. The current phase, which started in 2020 after the third halving, has a stock-to-flow ratio of 56 and a market value of $5.5 trillion, according to the model.
The model predicts that the next phase, which will start in 2024 after the fourth halving, will have a stock-to-flow ratio of 121 and a market value of $28.6 trillion. This implies that the price of Bitcoin will reach $732,000 by 2024, based on the current circulating supply of 19.5 million coins.
The S2FX model has been remarkably accurate in forecasting the price of Bitcoin in the past. The model predicted that Bitcoin would reach $55,000 in 2021, which it did in February. The model also predicted that Bitcoin would peak at $60,000 in 2021, which it did in April. However, the model also implies that Bitcoin will experience a significant correction after reaching its peak, as it did in 2013 and 2017.
The S2FX model is not the only one that predicts a bright future for Bitcoin. Other models, such as the Elliott Wave Theory and the Hyperwave Theory, also suggest that Bitcoin will reach six or seven figures in the next few years. However, these models are based on different assumptions and methods, and may not account for all the factors that influence the price of Bitcoin, such as market demand, regulatory changes, and technological developments.